Optimizing the Agreed Rate of Return for Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Road Projects: Challenges and Solutions

Understanding the Key Challenges in Rate of Return Determination

Risk and Return Balance

  • The general principle states that higher risks should correlate with higher returns.
  • However, many PPP projects lack a clear metric to assess financial, social, and economic risks.
  • There is an over-reliance on historical return levels rather than current market conditions.

Limited Risk-Sharing Reflection

  • The rate of return should reflect the risk-sharing ratio between the private sector and the government.
  • Currently, there is no structured framework to accurately assess and balance these risks.

New Approach to Determining PPP Project Returns Recent research introduces a robust regression-based model that quantifies six risk categories to predict appropriate return rates. The study, based on 54 cases in South Korea, found:

  • Economic risk had the highest impact on return rates.
  • Regulation change risk had minimal influence.
  • A structured formula can improve future PPP return assessments.

Industry Perspectives and External Insights

Further Reading and Resources

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